The great strength of American capitalism is also its great weakness, namely, its extremely high weapons productivity. A number of factors have produced increases in productivity, like, the mechanization of the production process that got under way in England as early as the 18th century. In the early 20th century, then, American industrialists made a contribution in the form of automatiion. ..Amor Patriae
Tuesday, August 2, 2022
Elon Musk JUST DESTROYED Russia's Best Rocket! Elon Musk has just destroyed Russia’s best rocket by replacing it with his own technology. Thanks to SpaceX, the US can now have a breather in terms of the space race, but it wasn't this way long ago. The US did depend on Russia for its rocket engines since they were one of the best engines ever built so far. On the other hand, Russia, on the other hand, offers its engines to American companies to lift their spaceships into space, but it all changed when the Russian-Ukrainian War began. After posing economic sanctions on Putin’s nation, the US space manufacturing companies did have to find an alternative. Luckily, America has Elon Musk, and we know what all he is capable of. With his team, SpaceX created an engine that is far better and even more cost-effective than compared to Russia’s rocket engine.
Elon Musk’s New Nuclear Rocket SHOCKS The Entire Space Industry! On the 19th of July 2019, Elon Musk said that “Nuclear thermal rockets for fast transit around the solar system would be a great area of research for NASA” but now he seems to have implemented this idea on his own. As nuclear power-related innovations plan to make interstellar travel faster, more effective, and less expensive, mankind is poised to shape the future of space travel to Mars, our solar system, and beyond. We may be on the verge of entering the age of nuclear-powered space flight. Elon Musk calls it the holy grail of space technology. The nuclear rocket created by Musk might just have revolutionised the way we think about space travel. Getting Off The Earth: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is extremely keen on getting humanity off this planet. And that's more important than ever given the fact that humanity is staring down the barrel of climate change, comet strikes, and dropping birth rates — not to mention, in his words, "good ol' nuclear Armageddon." On November 27th 2021, during an appearance at the National Academies’ joint meeting of the Space Studies Board and Board on Physics and Astronomy, Musk elaborated on his ambitious plans to get a permanent base on Mars established. Musk's argument is simple. Perhaps by the time the next massive asteroid approaches, we'll have developed the technology to shelter the earth or reroute the space rock. However, if anything more terrible occurs, such as a nearby star exploding, we may all be annihilated. Musk claims that we can't afford to wait and find out. It would be simpler to fly if we used fusion power. Researchers are devising methods to capture the massive amount of energy generated during fusion events and utilise it to power a propulsion system. A fusion-powered spaceship might speed up the timeframe for a manned Mars trip by reducing the time it takes to reach Mars. This type of spacecraft might mitigate the negative effects of radiation and weightlessness. The creation of a fusion-powered spaceship would be analogous to the development of an earth-based vehicle with double the peak speed of any car and a fuel economy of 7000 miles per gallon. Although the idea is fascinating and exciting, it is easier said than done. The Limitations Of Current Technology: Humans have been attracted by the stars above them in a variety of ways since the dawn of civilization, but there appears to be a particularly strong modern interest in the astrophysics of the cosmos beyond our solar system. This is due in part to the fact that space agencies throughout the world are conducting a number of new scientific studies. There is a need to develop new propulsion systems that enable substantially greater velocities than are currently possible. Nuclear fusion is one of the most promising options for sending autonomous probes to the closest stars during a human's lifetime,
although economically feasible results have yet to be proved. The most significant barrier to interstellar travel is a lack of sufficient technology; the fact that the stars are so far away is the main problem with getting there. The nearest star to us, Proxima Centauri, is 4.3 light-years distant, which is equal to 269 000 astronomical units au, where 1au equals the average distance between the earth and our sun, which is around 150 000 kilometres. The sun is approximately 7 000 times further away than our solar system's most distant dwarf planet, Pluto, which circles the sun on average at a distance of roughly 40 a.u. In that instance, how long do you think it would take for a probe to reach Proxima? The Voyager 1 probe, launched in 1977 to examine Jupiter and Saturn, was the fastest human-built spacecraft. It left the solar system in 2012 and is presently travelling at a speed of 17 kilometres per second (3.6 au per year). If it were headed in that direction, it would take nearly 74 000 years for Voyager 1 to reach Proxima. From a human standpoint, that is not an ideal time frame for a researcher to wait for their results. The utility of the space probe is very certainly dependent on its capacity to return data within a time period suited for humans, such as decades or perhaps a century. The Magnificent Starship: The financial implications are mind-boggling even before Musk announced the new Starship. Despite its size and power, the rocket system is less expensive than the Falcon 9, owing to its reusable architecture. Musk has disclosed that Starship flights might cost as little as $2 million each launch, compared to 62 million for each Falcon 9! So, picture the new, larger, and more powerful nuclear Starship! There's no getting around it: Starship 2.0 is massive! Musk said that it is up to eight times bigger than the present model!
Monday, August 1, 2022
How Long Will an EMP and its Aftermath Last
EMPs: Electromagnetic Pulses. To many preppers, EMPs are seen as the penultimate doomsday event. Be they a naturally occurring phenomenon or the byproduct of man-made superweapons, EMPs are theorized to knock humanity back to an Industrial Age state of being in a literal blink, or perhaps even worse.
By disabling or destroying any electrical device that utilizes a circuit board, an EMP will eliminate virtually every unhardened piece of modern technology. What preppers want to know is how long it will last?
An EMP is both an instant occurrence and an aftermath: EMP itself radiates outward from its source at nearly the speed of light. These waves will interact will electrical devices and inflict damage nearly instantly.
The duration of an EMP aftermath is highly variable depending on severity. Light damage can be repaired in days or weeks. Severe or widespread damage might take years or a decade or more to replace.
Complications
There is more to consider than just the EMP “burst” and its effects, since some weapons that generate EMPs as a secondary effect, like a nuclear warhead for instance, will “sow” electromagnetic interference in the form of nuclear fallout, the “radiation” component of this fallout being, you got it, radio waves.
This manifests as continual disruption of devices that receive or transmit radio waves, and potentially can interfere with solid state electronics like the main pulse.
This effect will be present until the radioactive material has gone though several phases of its half-life or it is cleaned away entirely. Again, replacement or repair of affected electronics will be required.
So while EMPs are typified as a large, wide area event, EMP effects can take several forms and the duration of each is dependent on its nature.
Survivability
The only way to protect functionality is to specially harden the device against EMP by design, an expensive and, frankly, theoretical proposition since most electronics have not been tested against an EMP of the magnitude which is likely to cause a regional or national crisis.
“Isolation” of sensitive electronics is possible with Faraday cages, but again this is beyond the reach of nearly all preppers when it comes to proper testing.
One of the only surefire ways of preventing a total-loss of capability from an EMP is to go “analog”. While not entirely true, as electronics utilizing early vacuum tube technology are practically immune to an EMP.
The electrical potential needed to overwhelm and force a vacuum tube’s receiving plate to feed power in reverse is astounding, and any EMP that is generated close enough to the vacuum tube to accomplish that (one generated by nuclear weapons, at least) would be a moot point since the tube would be destroyed.
The other major factor in determining the duration of an EMP’s practical effects is in the intensity of the pulse itself. An EMP can potentially destroy only the most delicate of electronics, or it can pop fuses and trip circuit breakers. It is capable of being so strong it literally immolates power lines and vaporize conductors. It all depends on its strength.
A comparatively minor EMP may only result in a bunch of burned out consumer electronics heading for landfills. Anything protected by a circuit breaker or fuse and not containing a computer chip should survive and be ready to go when the fuse is replaced or the breaker reset.
Anything subjected to a strong enough EMP that slags conductors and fried electrical systems and circuit boards alike will the stuff doomsday is made of; there is no telling how long it would take to repair such catastrophic damage over so wide an area.
Conclusion
While an EMP is itself over in a millisecond, its effects can persist for weeks or months in the form of radioactive fallout if it was generated by a nuclear detonation.
The damage caused by an EMP will in effect render the world a snapshot to its silent and invisible havoc; depending on the strength of the EMP, anything from minor repair to complete overhaul and replacement of all affected electrical systems may be required, taking years or even a decade or more to fix.
Tom Marlowe grew up with a gun in his hand, and has held all kinds of jobs in the gun industry: range safety, sales, instruction and consulting, He has the experience in helping civilian shooters figure out what firearms work best for them.
I don’t know your background or where you got the information for this article; but, you’ve gotten so many facts wrong I have to take them on and explain them; however, to be honest, not many people have the physics background to understand or really explain an EMP.
I’ll add more here later today as I get iime.
EMPs: Electromagnetic Pulses. To many preppers, EMPs are seen as the penultimate doomsday event. Be they a naturally occurring phenomenon or the byproduct of man-made superweapons, EMPs are theorized to knock humanity back to an Industrial Age state of being in a literal blink, or perhaps even worse.
There are no EMP’s that originate from a naturally occurring phenomenon and although a CME (Solar Coronal Mass Ejection) can have similar effects, they are limited to long lines (antennas) like power and communications infrastructure and are unlikely to affect any electronic device not connected to a long wire antenna or the power grid.
The major difference is the frequency (rise time) of the generated pulses.
By disabling or destroying any electrical device that utilizes a circuit board, an EMP will eliminate virtually every unhardened piece of modern technology. What preppers want to know is how long it will last?
Actually, most small consumer devices are hardened more than people know.
They have to endure ESD, that spark from your finger when you walk across the room and also interference from the radio waves emitted from many other consumer devices, like fence chargers, neon lights, LED light bulbs and some HDTV’s.
An EMP is both an instant occurrence and an aftermath: EMP itself radiates outward from its source at nearly the speed of light. These waves will interact will electrical devices and inflict damage nearly instantly.
That is true in some instances; but, not all devices in all cases, since it depends on the type of circuit board in the device, the type of case, what kind and how much ESD protection is in the design, and the orientation of the device to the incoming EM wave front.
The duration of an EMP aftermath is highly variable depending on severity. Light damage can be repaired in days or weeks. Severe or widespread damage might take years or a decade or more to replace.
Severity will again depend on the device, its orientation, and how much conductive material is there to “receive” the energy.
I think that most of my systems, including my generator has a good chance of surviving; but, the biggest effect on long term duration and down time, will be the power grid, since it has thousands of miles of power lines to act as antennas that will collect the energy from a pulse and damage the infrastructure, including high voltage switch gear and transformers, some of which are custom built and too large and expensive to be kept in stock.
Anything you have plugged into the power grid during and EMP is also likely to be damaged.
Complications
There is more to consider than just the EMP “burst” and its effects, since some weapons that generate EMPs as a secondary effect, like a nuclear warhead for instance, will “sow” electromagnetic interference in the form of nuclear fallout, the “radiation” component of this fallout being, you got it, radio waves.
The radiation components of fallout are definitively not radio waves; but, a combination of Alpha & Beta Particles and Gamma Rays, with the Gamma being the only EM radiation.
If the Alpha, Beta, and Gamma are of sufficient intensity (ionizing radiation) they can ionize the air around them and ionized air can emit radio frequency noise, like that hears on an AM radio during a thunderstorm.
That radio noise is also what remote lightning detectors use when you see the meteorologists showing lightning activity maps.
This manifests as continual disruption of devices that receive or transmit radio waves, and potentially can interfere with solid state electronics like the main pulse.
No it cannot. See the explanation above.
It can interfere with radio communications; but, has nothing to do with solid state vs. vacuum tube based equipment. I have both and see & hear this clearly during thunderstorms, both local and remote.
This effect will be present until the radioactive material has gone though several phases of its half-life or it is cleaned away entirely. Again, replacement or repair of affected electronics will be required.
This is correct; but, once again, the residual radiation from fallout will not damage undamaged or functional equipment, only cause radio frequency interference
Survivability
The only way to protect functionality is to specially harden the device against EMP by design, an expensive and, frankly, theoretical proposition since most electronics have not been tested against an EMP of the magnitude which is likely to cause a regional or national crisis.
This really depends on the device. While most consumer devices are not tested against an EMP specification, they are compliance tested for FCC emissions (a two way function) and for ESD, so small devices unconnected to outside wiring (power lines, cable TV, telephone lines, etc) are likely to be undamaged,
“Isolation” of sensitive electronics is possible with Faraday cages, but again this is beyond the reach of nearly all preppers when it comes to proper testing.
A good faraday enclosure for a single device is easy and rather foolproof. Place the device in a cardboard box, with the original container often being the best fit.
Wrap the box with several overlapping layers of aluminum foil in one direction, Tuck in the foil sticking out around the box, and then wrap the side of the box with cardboard still showing. Ticj this vox on a shelf or in a srawer.
One of the only surefire ways of preventing a total-loss of capability from an EMP is to go “analog”. While not entirely true, as electronics utilizing early vacuum tube technology are practically immune to an EMP.
Analog? What does that even mean? I use both solid state and vacuum tube equipment with both analog and digital communications.
If you actually meant using vacuum tubes, they would be mostly immune to the EMP effects; but, be prepared to have lots of power available, since they are often heavier, use much higher voltages and currents to operate, generating a lot of heat in the process. The weight and power are one reason that solid state electronics have overtaken them.
OTOH, tube type equipment is durable. I gave some Equipment I built back in the 1970’s that had not been operated in a decade to a friend who is a new ham. He connected it and it was still operating like new.
The electrical potential needed to overwhelm and force a vacuum tube’s receiving plate to feed power in reverse is astounding, and any EMP that is generated close enough to the vacuum tube to accomplish that (one generated by nuclear weapons, at least) would be a moot point since the tube would be destroyed.
Destroyed along with its owner and the building where they were hiding due to heat and blast effects of the weapon.
The other major factor in determining the duration of an EMP’s practical effects is in the intensity of the pulse itself. An EMP can potentially destroy only the most delicate of electronics, or it can pop fuses and trip circuit breakers. It is capable of being so strong it literally immolates power lines and vaporize conductors. It all depends on its strength.
It is not likely to vaporize conductors; but, circuit breakers and fuses within the power grid may all be subject to tripping &/or failure.
A comparatively minor EMP may only result in a bunch of burned out consumer electronics heading for landfills. Anything protected by a circuit breaker or fuse and not containing a computer chip should survive and be ready to go when the fuse is replaced or the breaker reset.
Wow. You don’t seem to understand the rise time of an EMP pulse, that will go right around / through fuses and breakers before they can trip.and can still cause damage, The best option is still to not have equipment connected to outside antennas, like the power grid, cable TV or telephone lines.
Conclusion
While an EMP is itself over in a millisecond, its effects can persist for weeks or months in the form of radioactive fallout if it was generated by a nuclear detonation.
True; but, once again that fallout, while dangerous to living creatures, is unlikely to cause any additional equipment damage, once it is functional.
The damage caused by an EMP will in effect render the world a snapshot to its silent and invisible havoc; depending on the strength of the EMP, anything from minor repair to complete overhaul and replacement of all affected electrical systems may be required, taking years or even a decade or more to fix.
Unconnected small items may easily survive; but, the power grids (there are 3) as a national energy provider will likely be damaged and take months or more to repair.
Sunday, July 31, 2022
An unmanned aircraft was recently taken down by an advanced Chinese weapon through a powerful electromagnetic pulse or EMP.
According to a Mail Online report, this weapon was able to take down the aircraft with the EMP in the first-ever identified field trial of the Beijing technology.
The EMP weapon fired at the said aircraft while on its 4,920-feet flight above sea level before it crashed down.
The experiment, carried out by defense contractor China Electronics Technology Group or CETC, is thought to be the first openly reported field test of China for an electromagnetic pulse weapon in the race to catch up with the United States.
Electromagnetic Pulse
The electromagnetic pulse weapon, as described in the Interesting Engineering site, is used in the field test run within a narrow band which meant that the microwave beam it generated was developed to have a longer range for firing.
Nevertheless, study investigators discovered that the flight control system of the drone had malfunctioned following the firing of the pulse weapon.
The Electric Information Warfare Technology Chinese journal specified that in this particular experiment, the drone did not immediately drop, although it unexpectedly swerved from side to side.
Wen Ynpeng, a CETC engineer, together with colleagues, noted that a possible explanation of the behavior of the drone is that, there is malfunctioning on the flight control system's part, delivering "an error control command."
How Electromagnetic Pulse Weapons Work
Electromagnetic pulse weapons use missiles equipped with an EMP cannon. This utilizes an extremely powerful microwave oven to yield a concentrated beam of energy.
The energy then causes surges of voltage in electronic equipment, executing them functionless before surge protectors get the chance to react or respond.
The main objective is to destroy the command, communication, and control of an enemy, not to mention computing, intelligence, and surveillance capabilities sans hurting an infrastructure or people.
The research did not provide details in terms of the date and place of the experiment. It did not give distance either, between the EMP weapon and its target.
Early Prototype EMP Weapon Demonstrated
Earlier on, in 2019, the US was reported to have demonstrated a model EMP weapon also called Tactical High Power Microwave Operational Responder or Thor.
Essentially, THOR is described by the Air Force Research Laboratory as a "counter-swarm electromagnetic weapon" designed for the defense of the airbase.
This system offers the non-kinetic defeat of several targets. It's operating from a wall plug and using energy to disable drones.
The said prototype EMP, also described in a Breaking Defense report, was able to bring down 50 drones with a single shot, exhibiting that it is capable of protecting a military base.
The researchers said, the design of the EMP weapons of China are based on the US weapons, although with some cost-efficient technical innovations.
Even though the Chinese experiment only involved a single aircraft, study investigators claimed this advanced Chinese weapon would have a substantial "benefit against swarms of drones."
Electromagnetic pulses can range in size from closely targeted cannons that could disable an aircraft to gigantic atmospheric nuclear explosions that could wipe out the electricity grid of the entire country.
China is developing electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons that can fry all electronics over vast distances and could deploy the weapons on its new hypersonic missiles, according to a report by a security group.
Peter Pry, a former CIA officer and now director of the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security, said in the report that China has high-altitude EMP weapons and super-EMP weapons designed to destroy or damage all electronic components over wide areas. Mr. Pry believes the EMP threat posed by China will be magnified if the arms are used with hypersonic missiles.
Boeing's "CHAMP," short for Counter-electronics High-powered Microwave Advanced Missile Project. It's essentially the old nuclear electromagnetic pulse weapon that we used to worry so much about -- but without the nuclear part. CHAMP carries a small generator that emits microwaves to fry electronics with pinpoint accuracy. It targets not nations or cities but individual buildings, blacking out their electronics rather than blowing up physical targets (or people). What makes CHAMP even more interesting is that, unlike a nuclear electromagnetic pulse weapon, which fires once, blacking out entire nation-states, CHAMP can fire multiple times, pinpointing and blacking out only essential targets. This would permit, for example, taking down radar defenses in a hostile state, while saving the electrical grid that supports the civilian population. In a 2012 test flight in Utah, a single CHAMP was reported to have blacked out seven separate targets in succession, in one single mission. Even back then, a Boeing representative was able to boast: "We hit every target we wanted to," predicting further that "in the near future, this technology may be used to render an enemy's electronic and data systems useless even before the first troops or aircraft arrive." Three years later, that future has arrived. Air Force Research Laboratory commander Maj. Gen. Tom Masiello says CHAMP is "an operational system already in our tactical air force." Boeing headlines the CHAMP product, but at least two other companies are known to be involved in the project. According to Military Embedded Systems, it's actually Raytheon (NYSE: RTN ) that builds the electronic innards of the device -- the "shooting end" of a weapon that doesn't actually shoot anyone. (Raytheon's involvement shouldn't come as a surprise, given the company's expertise building complementary weapons, such as its MALD-J radar-spoofing, electronics-jamming drone.) Additionally, Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) builds the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile -- Extended Range (JASSM-ER), which the Air Force intends to use as CHAMP's delivery mechanism. A cruise missile with an estimated range in excess of 600 miles, JASSM-ER will itself be deployable from combat aircraft such as F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, B-1 and B-52 bombers, and the F-35 stealth fighter -- extending CHAMP's reach even further. To date, Military Embedded Systems notes that the Air Force Research Laboratory has contracted Boeing to build only five CHAMP devices. But the trend in Pentagon acquisitions projects suggests the Air Force could soon be building these weapons en masse. From MALD-J radar-jamming drones to Switchblade kamikaze guided rockets and now CHAMP mini-electromagnetic-pulse weapons, the Air Force seems intent on fighting its next war more or less entirely by remote control. To the extent CHAMP makes that easier for them, I expect it to be a very popular product indeed.
The experiment is thought to be China's first openly reported field test of an electromagnetic pulse weapon in the race to catch up with the US (pictured, a US EMP weapon known as Boeing Champ)
How EMP works
EMP, or electromagnetic pulse weapons use missiles equipped with an electromagnetic pulse cannon.
This uses a super-powerful microwave oven to generate a concentrated beam of energy.
The energy causes voltage surges in electronic equipment, rendering them useless before surge protectors have the chance to react.
The aim is to destroy an enemy's command, control, communication and computing, surveillance and intelligence capabilities without hurting people or infrastructure.
The paper did not give details about the date and location of the experiment, or of distance between the EMP weapon and the target.
In 2019, the US demonstrated a prototype EMP weapon known as the Tactical High Power Microwave Operational Responder, or Thor, that brought down 50 drones with one shot, showing that it is capable of defending a military base.
According to the researchers, the design of the Chinese EMP weapons are based on US ones, but with some cost-effective technical innovations.
Although the Chinese experiment only involved one aircraft, researchers claimed the weapon would have 'a significant advantage against swarms of drones'.
EMPs can range in size from narrowly targeted cannons that could disable an aircraft to massive atmospheric nuclear blasts that could wipe out the entire nation's electricity grid.
“China is on the verge of deploying or has already deployed hypersonic weapons that could potentially be armed with nuclear or non-nuclear EMP warheads, greatly increasing the threat of surprise attack against U.S. forces in the Pacific and against the United States,” Mr. Pry said in a report made public last week.
Hypersonic missiles are weapons that travel more than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver to avoid interception.
China has announced that its hypersonic glide vehicle, known as the DF-17, is close to deployment.
The glider is launched atop a ballistic missile and then released into the zone between air and space.
A second type of hypersonic missile is a cruise missile powered by a special engine known as a scramjet.
Both are considered highly accurate missiles that can deliver either nuclear or conventional warheads.
According to Mr. Pry, hypersonic missiles are ideally suited for conducting a nuclear detonation in space, one that can damage or disrupt electronic systems including automobiles and weapons systems.
Hypersonic missiles carrying EMP warheads are well suited for the high-speed missiles because their operating altitude, about 60 miles high, is “the optimum height-of-burst for maximizing [high-altitude] EMP field strength against a surface target that might be EMP-hardened, like an aircraft carrier group or an ICBM wing,” the report said.
“Super-EMP warheads, in design resembling a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon like a neutron artillery shell, would likely be much smaller and lighter, and certainly much more effective, than any conventional high-explosives warhead for China’s [hypersonic glide vehicles] and [hypersonic cruise missiles],” he stated.
Arming its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles with super-EMP warheads would allow Beijing to “virtually overnight transform its relatively (allegedly) small nuclear deterrent into a giant killer, capable of flying below U.S. radars and outracing U.S. reaction-time to deliver a HEMP ‘Pearl Harbor,’” Mr. Pry said in the report, “The People’s Republic of China Military Doctrine, Plans, and Capabilities for Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack.”
SECOND RUSSIAN INF VIOLATION
The State Department’s annual report on compliance with arms agreements was sent to Congress this week and reveals for the first time a second possible Russian breach of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Disclosure of a potential new violation follows President Trump’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty over Moscow’s development of a ground-launched cruise missile, the SSC-8, that U.S. officials contend is banned by the Cold War-era treaty.
According to the report, the new issue is related to what NATO called Russia’s SS-N-30a naval cruise missile, one that Russia plans to deploy in a ground-launched version.
The SS-N-30, called Kalibr by the Russians, is notable for its deceptive delivery system. It is deployed inside a launcher system designed to look like a standard 40-foot shipping container. Analysts fear Russians could use the deception to deploy a long-range land-attack cruise missile that will not be limited to launch from warships.
The container-basing mode means the missile could be fired from a disguised ship among the thousands of freighters that ply the world’s seas. Russia also could sell the container missile to nations such as Iran and North Korea, which could then turn their merchant ships into missile launch pads.
“In early February 2019, several senior Russian officials, including President [Vladimir] Putin, publicly endorsed proposals to base sea-based Kalibr missiles on land,” said the report, noting that details of the effort are contained in a classified annex to the compliance report.
The INF Treaty banned ground-launched missiles with ranges of 310 to 3,410 miles.
The report notes that endorsement by Mr. Putin of a land-based SS-N-30 does not violate the INF Treaty because at the time of the February 2019 announcement, both the United States and Russia had suspended their obligations under INF.
Also, potential ground-launched INF missiles are not treaty violations unless they are produced, tested and deployed.
“However, the endorsement of these proposals demonstrated Russia’s lack of interest in returning to full compliance with the treaty,” the report said.
When the United States announced its intention to withdraw from the treaty in February 2019, the notification said the government would rescind the withdrawal notice if Moscow came into full compliance with the INF Treaty and destroyed the SSC-8 missiles and launchers.
A U.S. official familiar with U.S.-Russian arms talks in Vienna this week said Russian officials asked the United States to adopt a moratorium on building INF missiles, despite Moscow’s INF Treaty breach and plans for a second. The U.S. side rejected the offer.
REPORT DETAILS INF DECEPTION
Another intelligence disclosure revealed in the State Department’s annual arms compliance report involves Russia’s decadelong push to build the SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missile.
The SSC-8 missile development appears to have begun in the mid-2000s by the Novator design bureau.
The report said the SSC-8 closely resembles two other Russian missiles, the R-500 ground-launched cruise missile that is part of the Iskandr short-range missile system and the Kalibr naval cruise missile.
By 2018, “multiple battalions” of the SSC-8 were deployed. The missile is the key reason the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty and began building INF-range missiles.
“Russia was ready to test the SSC-8 cruise missile in the mid- to late 2000s in such a way that appeared purposefully designed to disguise the true nature of the activity,” the report said.
For example, a fixed missile launcher was installed at a section of the Kapustin Yar missile test range that had been used to test treaty-compliant missiles.
Then the Russians tested the SSC-8 beyond the range permitted by INF. That testing is legal only if the missile will not be deployed on ground-based launchers. The INF allowed such testing so ship- or submarine-launched cruise missiles could be built.
By using the fixed launcher for the SSC-8, “Russia was attempting to conceal the fact that the SSC-8 missile was designed to be a ground-launched missile and was therefore a violation of the treaty,” the report said.
Later in the development, the new cruise missile had to be flight-tested to verify its capabilities. Those flight tests also took place at Kapustin Yar.
“To mask the purpose of these tests, Russia was careful to fly the SSC-8 only to distances less than 500 kilometers rather than to its maximum range capability,” the report said.
As part of masking their intentions, the Russians likely assumed building the SSC-8 in parallel with the Iskandr at the same site would fool U.S. intelligence and “would provide sufficient cover for its INF violation,” the report said.
Multiple flight tests of the SSC-8 were carried out by 2015 from both fixed and mobile launchers at Kapustin Yar. Public comments by Russian missile builders included details on other new missiles, but the Russians were “conspicuously silent” on the SSC-8.
“To be clear, the SSC-8 represented a flagrant violation of the INF Treaty that Russia intended to keep secret,” said the report, noting that the new missile can be armed with nuclear or conventional warheads.
“The history of Russia’s attempt to covertly exploit a treaty exception permitting ground-based flight tests of intermediate-range missiles not subject to the treaty, its lack of an explanation for these tests, and its overall secrecy about the [SSC-8 missile] provide important context for Russia’s violation.”
The electromagnetic fields produced by weapons designed and deployed with the intent to produce EMP have a high likelihood of damaging electrical power systems, electronics, and information systems upon which the U.S. military and American society depends. Their effects on dependent systems and infrastructures could be sufficient to qualify as catastrophic to the Nation.
China and Russia have also considered limited nuclear attack options that, unlike their Cold War plan, employ EMP as the primary or sole means of attack. Indeed, as recently as May 1999, during the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, high-ranking members of the Russian Duma, meeting with a U.S. congressional delegation to discuss the Balkans conflict, raised the specter of a Russian EMP attack that would paralyze the United States.
This emphasis on non-strategic use of nuclear weapons is in addition to the more traditional strategic employments, which, although reduced in priority, have certainly not been eradicated.
This type of detonation is likely to damage key weapon systems and support capabilities, including satellite navigation systems, intelligence and targeting systems, and many other militarily significant platforms. Battlefield impacts will be significant, particularly if our small, technically superior but electronically dependent force is transformed into a small, impaired and vulnerable force.”
Saturday, July 30, 2022
Alaska: America’s Strategic Frontier
CARGO PLANE CARRIES AN ARSENAL OF MISSILES TO DEFEND ALASKA
Increasingly capable long-range air-launched munitions have already granted new life to elder statesmen like the B-52 Stratofortress, but the Air Force's Rapid Dragon program aims to take this concept to the next level. Rather than relying solely on heavy payload bombers and strike fighters to deliver stand-off munitions, Rapid Dragon will allow America's large fleets of cargo aircraft to join the fight as missile-packing arsenal ships. In fact, this system could even turn cargo aircraft into incredibly potent warship hunters if a conflict were ever to break out over the Pacific.
Over the past decade, nations bordering on the Arctic have found themselves with a big new security problem. The melting of the arctic ice has opened up shipping lanes and opportunities for the exploitation for undersea resources, but has also exposed vulnerabilities for countries that have long considered their northern frontier secure.
It’s not surprising that Russia has prepared its military for arctic operations better than any other country. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union prepared to fight across the Arctic, both in the air and at sea. Many of the weapons and much of the expertise from that era have remained, leaving the Kremlin with a lethal set of capabilities. Here are five systems we can expect Russia to use in order to defend its interests in the Arctic Ocean, in case the unthinkable ever occurred.
Icebreakers:
The single most important vessel for access to the arctic is the icebreaker, and Russia retains the most extensive fleet of icebreakers anywhere in the world. Warming does not eliminate arctic ice, but instead makes the movement of ice more fluid and less predictable. As access to the Arctic improves, and as the commercial interest in exploiting the region increases, the movement of ice and increased frequency of military and civilian use will make icebreakers more necessary than ever. Both civilian and military ships will require the support of icebreakers in order to proceed with their regular tasks, and for the foreseeable future, Russia is best equipped to serve as the guarantor of global access to the Arctic.
Under the auspices of its civilian nuclear-power agency, Russia operates four nuclear-powered, ocean-going icebreakers—ships that have sufficient power and range to support military expeditions across the Arctic. Russia also has a wide array of conventionally powered icebreakers at its disposal. By contrast, the United States has access only to a trio of U.S. Coast Guard icebreakers, as well as to a handful of Canadian Coast Guard vessels.
Icebreakers guarantee Russian military access to the Arctic with a certainty that no other country enjoys. This gives Russia great freedom in planning its military and resource access strategy in the polar region.
Sometimes the best way to manage ice is to avoid it altogether. The American, British and Soviet navies tangled extensively under the Arctic Ocean during the Cold War, as boomers and attack subs tracked one another. Russian submariners have extensive experience operating in the Arctic, and an extensive support structure in old Soviet bases along the ocean’s rim.
The premier Russian nuclear attack vessel remains the Akula, a monster of a boat that can carry a vast arsenal of weapons. Although built in the 1980s, the Akula can operate effectively in anti-submarine roles (either under the ice or under open seas), and in anti-shipping roles (where a reduction in surface ice can make cruise missiles somewhat more effective). The Akula isn’t quite as quiet as its Western counterparts, but it makes up for that deficiency in size and weapons load. The Russian Northern Fleet, normally tasked with arctic ops, currently maintains six Akulas, which regularly operate under the icepack.
MiG-31:
Even as the sea ice clears, conditions in the Arctic will make it difficult to conduct carrier operations, increasing the importance of land-based aircraft. Operating from bases along the rim of the Arctic, the MiG-31 Foxhound—a fast, long-legged interceptor developed from the MiG-25 Foxbat, can cover a lot of space.
The MiG-31 and its predecessor were designed to hunt and kill American bombers as they attempted to penetrate Soviet air defenses. Although the MiG-25 performed only adequately when pressed into an air-to-air combat role, the Foxhound has better radars and superior maneuverability, making it a more effective air-superiority platform.
To be sure, the Foxhound would struggle in a tangle against the most advanced generation-4.5 and generation-5 fighters the United States has to offer, but given the lack of bases, they may not be around to fight. The Foxhound can make mach 2.83 at altitude, with a combat radius of about 900 miles. Russia operates around 200 MiG-31s between the Navy and the Air Force, and has taken steps to revive and improve the infrastructure to support its arctic airbases.
Tu-95/Tu-142:
The Tu-95 Bear is one of the oldest combat aircraft still operational. Like the B-52, it flies in a strategic environment far from what its engineers intended in the 1950s. However, like the B-52 the Tu-95, has proven a very flexible airframe, and its variants have long operated in a maritime patrol configuration. The Tu-95 (and its maritime variant, the Tu-142) are particularly at home in the cold, bleak skies of the arctic, where land bases are distant and carrier operations often impractical.
In its classic Tu-95 variant, the Bear can carry anti-ship and anti-surface cruise missiles. Its maritime patrol variant, the Tu-142, can conduct anti-submarine operations. With a combat radius upwards of 3000 miles, the Bear can operate well beyond the reach of land- and carrier-based fighters, which is fortunate, because the Bear can no longer run from enemy interceptors. As with the B-52, Russia expects the Bear to continue in service for several more decades, providing a proven sea-control option.
Special Forces:
The Arctic Ocean lacks large landmasses and significant population centers. The forbidding climate makes even the largest islands virtually uninhabitable. In these conditions, the military has little use for large infantry or armored formations. Instead, formations that emphasize mobility and lethality carry the day.
Russian special forces have long prepared for warfare in the arctic. During the Cold War, Spetsnaz teams trained to attack NATO installations in Norway, the Faroes, Iceland and elsewhere. In recent years, Russia has stepped up training of special-forces formations intended for deployment in the Arctic. Submarines, aircraft and surface ships can deliver these teams, which can take and hold inaccessible areas, conduct reconnaissance and disrupt communications. Special forces can also assist in search and rescue missions of civilian workers and teams in inaccessible regions.
Conclusion:
The legacy systems of the Cold War have left Russia well prepared for competition over the Arctic. Russia’s challenge will be to maintain these systems in service (the Bear and the Foxhound have grown long in the tooth, as have many of the icebreakers) and develop effective replacements. Russia’s current financial problems, associated with the collapse of oil prices and the sanctions imposed by the West, will make it difficult for the military to pursue an effective transformation strategy. However, if climate change continues as many models expect, the responsibilities and opportunities for the Russian military in the Arctic will only increase.
As Russia and China expand their commercial and military activities in the Arctic, airmen should prepare for a corresponding uptick of U.S. and partner activity in that region, according to the Air Force's top general.
During a panel hosted by the Atlantic Council, Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein told audiences that the anticipated increase will require airmen to be expeditionary and to become accustomed to Arctic warfare exercises.
With the demand for military activity anticipated to rise, the Air National Guard's LC-130 "Skibird" will likely deploy to the polar region more often, he said. The Air Force has only 10 LC-130 aircraft -- equipped with ski-like landing gear -- which are used for operations in Greenland, as well as Antarctica.
The service is responsible for nearly 80 percent of the Defense Department's Arctic funding, with substantial contribution to two major military bases in Alaska, training ranges, early missile defense warning systems, and satellite command-and-control stations in the region, according to the new strategy. With the service leading these initiatives, airmen have the means through "inherent rapid-response and long-range capabilities" to respond to events, even catastrophic ones, happening in the high north, it adds.
The Air Force is watching its adversaries, Barrett said Tuesday. As Arctic ice continues to melt, Russia has emphasized its push for undersea intelligence gathering -- from submarines to drone operations -- within the Northern Sea route, in addition to its development of air defense and coastal missile systems. Further complicating things, China, which considers itself a "near-Arctic state," plans to create new shipping lanes with its "Polar Silk Road" initiative.
The Air Force's Arctic strategy notes that, while adversaries seek to capitalize on the changing environment, it presents looming hazards for the service. "Reductions in single- and multi-year polar ice are accelerating the rate of coastal erosion, putting Air and Space Forces' already sparse infrastructure at risk," it states..
"When the full complement of planned F-35s arrive at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska's unparalleled concentration of fifth-generation fighters will project unmistakable influence," she said.
By 2022, Alaska will be home to one of the highest concentrations of stealth aircraft operating in the Pacific theater and near the Arctic Circle. A total of 54 conventional takeoff and landing versions of the Lightning II are scheduled to arrive by December 2021. The base also has KC-135 Stratotankers and F-16 Fighting Falcons, which often serve as aggressor air or "red air" training aircraft to simulate air-to-air battles with jet fighter counterparts.
Adding more U.S. jets to the region also presents an opportunity for allied nations to integrate and learn from American pilots, officials have said. The 354th Fighter Wing at Eielson accepted its first F-35s in April as part of the enhanced build-up.
Despite its progress, the Air Force said it must advocate for future investments to its infrastructure in order to "match future operational needs." Those needs also contribute to homeland defense, according to the new strategy. However, it does not outline how officials have begun planning for these unspecified investments, how much they will cost or how the service will appeal to Congress for additional authorization.
For example, the Pentagon for years has been looking to update its early missile detection systems, many of which are located in the north.
The binational steering group was tasked with analyzing ways "to manage the eventual replacement of the North Warning System, which is our network of surveillance radars across Alaska and northern Canada" to protect against cruise missile threats posed by countries, Robinson said at the time.
The Air Force continues "to work with Canada to identify materiel and non-materiel solutions to the North Warning System," the strategy states, without disclosing more details.
Missile defense depends on communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance -- all aided by space operations, added Raymond. "Spacepower is essential to Arctic operations, allowing us to see with clarity, navigate with accuracy, and communicate across vast distances," he said.
The missions must all converge under a comprehensive, cross-domain network, Goldfein added.
China Sent Warships to Alaska and threatened the US. China sent advanced warships to waters near the Aleutian Islands in Alaska, reportedly in retaliation to the U.S. naval presence in the South China Sea. This could also be a display of the new force of the Chinese navy. Four Chinese warships, including one of its most advanced destroyers and a missile cruiser, were spotted sailing in the waters off Alaska in late August.
The China-US conflict has increased sharply in the past few months, with experts saying there is a risk of an all-out war. What is behind this hostility, and what kind of world order is Beijing aiming for? DW analyzes.
At the 19th convention of the Communist Party in October 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that a "new era" had dawned for China and that the People's Republic was "getting closer to the center of the world every day." But how does China imagine a world order in which it is at the center-stage?
"My understanding is that the political forces in Beijing do not know exactly what they want. They're experimenting with Deng Xiaoping," Gu Xuewu, a Bonn-based political scientist, told DW, referring to the Chinese politician who initiated economic reforms in the 1980s. Deng's famous motto was "crossing the river by feeling the stones."
China's indecision is also reflected in complex debates about its role in the world, according to Volker Stanzel, a China expert and former German ambassador to Beijing. The debates deal as much with Beijing's acceptance of the prevailing global order as with the idea that China – chosen by fate – must lead the world.
As varied and complex these discussions appear to be, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has the final say in all matters, which are not necessarily about world order, according to Stanzel. "It is only a question about China being able to function in a way that the ideas of the CPC can be implemented, and which can help it stay in power."
Core elements of the 'Chinese world order'
Despite these ambiguities, Gu says that some key elements of the "Chinese order" can still be identified. "China wants a world order that is politically multipolar, functionally multilateral and ideologically pluralistic."
The expert explained China's ideals as follows:
Multipolar: A world dominated by several power centers – China, the US, Europe, Russia and maybe India.
Multilateral: A world in which no country alone determines the global agenda; it must be negotiated between all power centers.
Pluralistic: The world must accept different forms of governance and not just liberal democracy.
"We already live in a multipolar world," Gu said. Many political scientists agree that the short phase of American hegemony following the collapse of the Soviet Union no longer exists.
In China, multilateralism has been linked to Xi's catchphrase, "the community of common destiny." In 2019, Xi rejected isolationism and positioned China as a supporter of multilateralism in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
But Stanzel is skeptical.
"Common destiny is empty talk; it needs to be defined. How do you want to organize the world? With more international laws and stronger global institutions? But I don't think that either China or the US are interested in this," Stanzel said.
Both China and the US, however, give little value to international laws, said Gu. "They accept them only if they suit their own interests. They reject them if they conflict with their interests."
Beijing wants to improve its global image, with Confucius institutes promoting Chinese language and culture across the world. At the same time, Chinese investors are buying media companies in an attempt to alter China's global perception.
China is also actively participating in the United Nations. "China chairs four international institutions – twice as many as the US – and uses its position to include its political expression in UN documents," Stanzel said.
However, the success of Chinese measures is uneven in different parts of the world. "The narrative is successful in Africa, more so in states that are economically tied to China," Stanzel added.
In Germany and other industrialized countries, China's image has been dented due to its somewhat aggressive diplomacy. The detention and reeducation of hundreds of thousands of Uighurs in Xinjiang and the massive curbs on the freedom of Hong Kong citizens have further damaged China's reputation in Europe and the US. For now, the U.S. is not flying any reconnaissance missions over the Ukraine, nor able to use aircraft to bring aide to Ukraine. The F-35s will police NATO airspace over the Baltic and Black Sea regions from Estonia’s Amari Air Base, Lithuania’s Siauliai Air Base and Romania’s Fetesti Air Base, the service said in a release.
The new Silk Road (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI), which was initially hailed as the world's largest infrastructure project, has also turned out to be a double-edged sword for many countries. Some critics say the project is making economically weak countries dependent on China. Sri Lanka, for instance, had to lease a deep seaport in Hambantota to a Chinese company for 99 years after failing to pay back loans.
Dominance in Asia
Gu believes that Chinese ambitions are significantly overestimated. "Anyone who wants to lead the world must be able to make general goods available free of charge and have a certain altruistic zeal to implement certain ideas globally," he said, adding that China lacks that. "China actually does not want to replace the US. It is even wary of taking on these tasks."
But even if China does not strive for global hegemony, its supreme status in Asia is beyond any doubt.
President Xi talked about "Asia for the Asians" in a 2014 speech. But what does the "Asia for the Asians" mean in the context of the Chinese order? A 2010 statement to the Association of the Southeast Nations (ASEAN) by then Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi can help us understand the dynamics: "China is a big country and other countries are small. It is simply a fact."
Nowhere in Asia is China's hegemonic claim more obvious than in the South China Sea. China is not only trying to force the US out of the region, it is also bringing key shipping routes and raw materials of the neighboring countries under its control. The consequences for "peripheral states" are instability and the growing pressure to choose between China and the US. There is also an increasing danger of an all-out military confrontation.
The Solomon Islands on Friday defended plans to sign a security deal with Beijing that could allow China to boost its military presence in the South Pacific island nation. A document, leaked on social media, revealed details of the pact, raising alarm bells in Australia, amid concerns China could try to establish a military base on the islands. The document says the Solomon Islands may "request China to send police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces." It said Beijing could also send ships for stopovers and to replenish supplies. The draft also allows China to have the final say on any public information released about the new pact. The leak is believed to be part of wider security arrangements after the Solomons on Thursday agreed on a policing cooperation pact with China following anti-government protests in November that turned into riots. A Solomon Islands official told Reuters news agency that the agreement would be sent to the cabinet for consideration. Australia and New Zealand have for decades seen the Pacific islands as their "backyard" and any security pact with Beijing is a threat to their position in the region. Washington and Canberra have long been concerned about the potential for China to build a naval base in the South Pacific, allowing its navy to project power far beyond East Asia. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australia and New Zealand were part of the "Pacific family" and had a history of providing security support and responding to crises. "There are others who may seek to pretend to influence and may seek to get some sort of hold in the region and we are very conscious of that," he told reporters. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told ABC Radio the proposed pact was "one of the most significant security developments that we have seen in decades and it's one that is adverse to Australia's national security interests." Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton said any move to establish a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands would be concerning. "We want peace and stability in the region. We don't want unsettling influences and we don't want pressure and coercion that we are seeing from China," Dutton told Channel Nine TV. New Zealand said Friday it would raise the issue with both the Solomon Islands and China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Friday called on relevant parties to look at the security pact "objectively and calmly and not over-interpret it." About the security arrangement with Beijing, the Solomon Islands government said in a statement it was "diversifying the country's security partnership including with China." It added that "broadening partnerships is needed to improve the quality of lives of our people and address soft and hard security threats facing the country.” The government said the security arrangement with Australia, signed in 2017, would be unaffected.